Reluctantly, I must conclude that our hopes are likely to be forlorn again. Impressive though a victory over Nadal on a clay court in Madrid ostensibly is, we have to remember a couple of important points: the effects of altitude in creating faster conditions than exist in Paris, and the fact that Nadal had played an extraordinary, physically-gruelling match the day before against Djokovic. Throw in the additional point that streaks have to end sometime, and that it is perhaps ideal to have them culminate prior to a grand slam tournament. It remains difficult for me to see Federer winning three sets against Nadal in Paris, given the heavier conditions that will exist, to say nothing of the vastly improved play and determination of both Djokovic and Murray to enter the conversation about who is the current world's number 2.
What must next be acknowledged is the degree to which Rafa has entered Roger's head. Such has been the impact of his indomitable competitive spirit and his peerless capacity to turn defence into attack, that Federer seems visibly straitened, his ability to execute, seemingly, every shot in the book (and several in a book entirely of his own) severely curtailed. In these encounters, curious lapses in his play and mental strength proliferate. One forgets that in Rafa's victory at Wimbledon last year, Federer was up a break in the second set, at 4-2, and then proceeded to implode at that vital juncture. What has mystified many of us is the degree to which Federer seems incapable of making adjustments to his game to counter Nadal. In Australia, Nadal was getting away with serving 2nd serves at less than 80 mph to Federer's backhand, over 80% of the time, without being made to pay a price. Federer only ran around a handful of these weak deliveries and despatched them with his forehand. This meant, as it did at Wimbledon, that Nadal was able to save at least 10 break points in the course of the match. It would seem obvious that a coach might be helpful in improving Roger's tactics, but the stubborness which made him a champion has blinded him to this need in the face of a challenge from a man who has had the temerity to refuse to yield to Federer's elegant game and has instead assiduously worked to be able to neutralise it.
In conclusion, it seems to me that Federer will have done very well if he makes it to the Finals in Paris once again. On getting there, if it is Rafa who faces him across the net, I see no reason to believe that the result that day will be any different from their previous encounters at Roland Garros. I do not forsee Roger getting lucky again in encountering a weary Nadal at that stage. We will then be confronted by a world's number 1 who will be the holder of the first two grand slam titles of the year, going into Wimbledon where he is the defending champion, being well on the away to achieving a grand slam....a goal with which Federer flirted for the past two years. Will he do it? My guess is he will, that is, unless his masterful job of managing pressure begins to unravel. For the past couple of years Rafa has been brilliant at deflecting pressure on to Roger in all of their encounters. There was always fulsome praise of Federer as "the best player of the history" sic, possessing the best forehand, etc. This made any losses, few as there were, pre-ordained and thus nullities, and any victories that much more impressive. Federer was the one who walked with the heavy weight of history on his narrow shoulders. This situation might be altered somewhat if Nadal goes on to win in Paris (a near certainty) and at Wimbledon (surely within reason). The clamour that would follow him as he began to play the US Open would be enormous and his ability to handle this burden would tell us a great deal about this remarkable young man, and should make his empathy for Federer all the deeper.
