at a remove of 51 days

This is the time that remains before we witness a singular swearing-in ceremony; one at which Chief Justice Roberts will invite Barack Hussein Obama to uphold and defend the constitution of the United States of America. What will then follow is an address that one feels will go take its place amongst the greet speeches of history. This seems a safe bet because of the ethnicity of the individual who will deliver it, his proven oratorical brilliance and the inspirational possibilities of the right speech. People have hearkened back to President Kennedy's appeal to the generation of the 1960s, when he invited them to abandon selfishness and truly place their country first (not in the churlish, false, way that McCain meant), as a guide to the potential of Obama's inaugural on the 20th of January, 2009. I feel that most of our expectations will be met. The optics of the occasion will have a necessary cleansing effect. America's lofty ideals, so long besmirched by the outgoing administration, will seem again to be operative. There have been tantalising hints of this in the responses from the unlikeliest quarters to Obama's election: elements of the Taliban pronouncing themselves ready to talk, congratulatory messages from the likes of Ahmadinajad and the confused, racist rantings of Zawahari, betraying a profound disquiet at the loss of the invaluable recruitment value of Bush and the looming Presidency of a man who will at a minimum force a rethink of Al-Qaeda's shibboleths.
What can we realistically expect of the coming administration? As I noted in my prior post, no President in my lifetime has confronted a more daunting inbox. The economic crisis alone could consume his entire first term, and, on the analysis of some of the best minds across the ideological spectrum, it may not begin to ameliorate until well into his first term right before he would have to be ramping up his re-election effort. Events in Mumbai highlight the capacity of world events to intrude on the best-laid plans of a President who won election on a promise to focus on the economy. What gives me hope is the make-up of the man himself. Obama strikes me as an intriguing amalgam of types. There is Barack the dreamer who inspired millions with his peerless speeches promising his listeners the chance to remake their country anew, to end divisive politics. There is also Obama the unflappable: cool in the face of the most irresponsible attacks, ruthless (viz his refusal to honour a prior promise to accept federal financing with their corresponding spending limits in the campaign. Here the obvious benefit of an overwhelming funding advantage outweighed any moral scruples), all of this suggestive of someone who is the embodiment of the old description of a "velvet hammer". He has chosen a cabinet of pragmatists, many of whom disagreed with him vigorously in the recent past (Hilary Clinton is the prime example of this tendency), with very little evidence of representation of the hopeful liberals who were his core constituency. Such is his confidence that he placates the potentially aggrieved by assuring them that he will be the source of ideological direction and those that he chooses will have to implement his policies, whatever their personal bent. The economic team, festooned with Clintonian retreads, architects of deregulation and, in the case of Geithner, Secretary-designate of the Treasury, a close colleague of Paulsen and Bernanke in the current mess, is being prepared to administer a Keynesian stimulus package of monumental scope. The national security team, highlighted by Hilary, has disagreed with him along the way as well. They will be tasked with implementing a pivot in American policy from a right to unilateral war, enunciated by Bush, to a return to prioritizing diplomacy. Much has been made of Obama's desire to assemble a team of rivals, of his valorizing of the clash of strong, differing opinions from which better policies can emerge. If the process is overseen by a sufficiently competent chief who can arbitrate the disputes well, and manage the personalities successfully, the result can be excellent. In the Bush administration this crucial component was clearly lacking and the war between the dyad of Cheney and Rumsfeld versus Powell roiled on and resulted in nothing but disaster. I am hopeful that Obama will be up to the challenge and that America will do much of the necessary work of restoring its reputation with the world in what one hopes will be merely his first term.